Record Seller Surplus, Vanishing Buyers: The Housing Market Shift No One Can Ignore

The U.S. housing market just hit a milestone we have not seen since the years following the 2008 financial crisis.

According to new data from Redfin, October 2025 delivered the strongest buyer’s market in more than ten years. Sellers now outnumber buyers by a record 36.8 percent, giving today’s active buyers something they have not had in a long time: leverage.

But behind that headline is a complex story about affordability, regional divides, shifting migration trends, and a market where both buyers and sellers are pulling back at the same time.

Here’s a full breakdown of what the latest data means and why it matters.

A Record Gap Between Sellers and Buyers

The headline figure from Redfin is startling. In October, there were an estimated 528,769 more home sellers than buyers, the largest imbalance since at least 2013.

Redfin defines a buyer’s market as one where sellers outnumber buyers by more than 10 percent. Today’s 36.8 percent gap is nearly four times that threshold, and the market has been in buyer’s market territory since May 2024. It crossed into extreme territory in April 2025, when the spread surpassed 30 percent.

This imbalance puts the negotiating power squarely on the buyer’s side. When buyers have more choices, they can take their time, negotiate harder, and walk away more easily. Homes sit longer. Price cuts become more common. And buyers who remain in the market have the upper hand.

The catch? It’s only a buyer’s market if you can afford to buy, and affordability is still the biggest barrier for most Americans.

Buyer Participation Drops to Near-Record Lows

The number of active homebuyers fell 1.7 percent month over month to 1.44 million. That’s the second-lowest reading on record, only beaten by April 2020 when the pandemic froze the entire market.

Buyers are stepping back for two key reasons:

• High mortgage rates and home prices have pushed monthly payments out of reach for many would-be buyers.
• Economic uncertainty has caused others to delay major financial decisions.

At the same time, seller activity is slipping too. Just not as quickly. Sellers fell 0.5 percent month over month to 1.97 million, the lowest level since February. Many homeowners are choosing not to list after seeing nearby homes sit for months or sell below expectations. Some who do list eventually delist after receiving little or no buyer interest.

In short, both sides are retreating, but buyers are retreating faster.

Where Buyers Hold the Most Power: Texas and Florida Dominate

Of the 50 largest U.S. metros, 35 are buyer’s markets. And the most extreme buyer-friendly markets are heavily concentrated in Texas and Florida.

Top buyer’s markets in October:

1. San Antonio, TX – 117% more sellers than buyers
2. Austin, TX – 115% more
3. Miami, FL – 108% more
4. Fort Lauderdale, FL – 107% more
5. Nashville, TN – 105% more

These markets have several things in common. Homebuilders in Texas and Florida have been producing new homes at some of the highest rates in the country. During the pandemic, migration from expensive coastal markets created a surge in demand, which encouraged even more building. But now, with affordability stretched and population inflows moderating, the supply-demand balance has flipped.

Florida faces additional headwinds: escalating insurance premiums, severe weather events, and rising condo fees. All factors that are pushing some homeowners to relocate.

Where Sellers Still Hold Control: The Tri-State Area Leads

Six of the top 50 metros remain seller’s markets, and every single one is in the Midwest or Northeast.

Strongest seller’s markets:

1. Nassau County, NY – 37.4% fewer sellers than buyers
2. Newark, NJ – 34.9% fewer
3. Montgomery County, PA – 34% fewer
4. New Brunswick, NJ – 25.2% fewer
5. Milwaukee, WI – 15.1% fewer
6. Cleveland, OH – 14.4% fewer

These markets have tighter inventory partly because the Northeast and Midwest issue far fewer building permits. With little new construction, even moderate demand keeps things competitive.

Prices reflect that difference. Across seller’s markets, home prices rose 7.1 percent year over year—compared to 3 percent in balanced markets and just 1.5 percent in buyer’s markets.

San Francisco’s Surprising Shift to Balance

One of the most dramatic turnarounds in the report comes from San Francisco. After six straight months as a buyer’s market, San Francisco has now spent two months in balanced territory, with buyers and sellers nearly equal.

In October, SF had 6.6 percent fewer sellers than buyers, placing it squarely within Redfin’s balanced range. That’s a remarkable shift from May, when buyers outnumbered sellers by nearly 47 percent.

A mix of stabilizing demand, slower outbound migration, and constrained new construction appears to be bringing equilibrium back to the Bay Area.

A Market Defined by Mismatched Expectations

Redfin Premier agent Matt Purdy summed up the current dynamic well. Sellers want top-dollar because they’re focused on recouping the equity they’ve gained over the last decade. Buyers, meanwhile, are fixated on keeping their monthly payments low. The mismatch is creating friction.

When that stalemate occurs, buyers are winning simply because they have more alternatives. Sellers who need to move—whether due to a job relocation, divorce, or other life event—end up accepting buyer-friendly terms.

What Today’s Market Means If You Plan to Buy or Sell

For buyers, this is the most favorable negotiating environment in more than 10 years. You’re more likely to get:

• Price reductions
• Seller concessions
• Inspection repairs
• Closing cost credits

Just remember: affordability remains historically challenging, so run the numbers carefully.

For sellers, the key is adjusting expectations. Pricing competitively, making strategic repairs, and offering incentives may be the difference between weeks on market and months on market.

The Bottom Line

The October 2025 data paints a clear picture: America is in a full-fledged buyer’s market, driven by a steep drop in demand, an oversupply of listings, and affordability challenges that are keeping buyers on the sidelines. While the extremes vary by region, the national trend is unmistakable. For the first time in years, buyers hold the cards.

If this trend continues into 2026, we may see one of the most buyer-friendly multi-year stretches since the post-2008 era.